Indigenous Alaskan Natives at risk because they traditionally hunt migratory birds - The Eskimo, Indian and Aleut people represent 16 percent of Alaska's population and are mainly located in rural areas. They are largely reliant on natural resources for their lively hood and, although there is no firm evidence of humans contracting H5N1 from infected meat, it is of some concern. Whilst people have not been recorded as being infected by eating the meat, many other animals have, including Raptors, Cats, Dogs, Mink & Martins.

It is anticipated that Alaska will be the entry point for Avian Influenza entering the Americas as this lies on one of the major Migratory Routes from Asia. The other critical US migratory entry point is Hawaii, although this is probably less likely. Infected birds seem to succumb to the disease very quickly and it is believed unlikely that any would succeed in crossing the Pacific. They are extensively sampling incoming wild birds to monitor for this disease.

Our figures are different from the WHO (World Health Organisation) because they only publish WHO confirmed tests. They do not include test results from other fairly reputable sources including many National Laboratories, unless they are confirmed by a WHO accredited Lab. We feel that there is already an under-reporting of Human H5N1 Influenza infections because of the lack of testing in many remote areas and the possible hiding of evidence by some Governments. Any country that states that they have a positive result for this disease, in a credible virus exposure situation, is accepted by us, based on the balance of probabilities. We do not however record any untested guesses, except to record suspicious occurrences.

In an effort to get a better picture of the possible wider infection amongst people, we have also included H5N1 Antibody Screening, where we have definitive figures. To explain - If these Antibodies are present in a person, they must have been exposed to the disease and generally to have received some level of infection. There is a limited possibility of Antibodies being produced when exposed to dead viruses but the majority of screening has taken place in recent high infection zones or amongst Health Care & Poultry workers who have been directly exposed. We therefore consider these as valid figures when trying to assess how far this strain of Avian Influenza has spread.

Our Tables have now been released - Check out our Figures

Jordan's first human case of H5N1 recently came from Egypt - An Egyptian working in Jordan is the first human case of H5N1 reported in this country. He apparently arrived in Jordan, by boat from Egypt, on the 28th March. The man is Abdul Fattah Ahmed Mess'ed and is currently being treated in Karak state hospital, near Amman. The disease was confirmed by the WHO after testing. 1/4/2006 China View

Key Events
1997 First Recorded Human infections. 18 cases & 6 deaths in Hong Kong (33%)
2003 Hong Kong has 2 new cases, one fatal. Vietnam has 3 deaths confirmed later.
2004 Vietnam & Thailand have 46 infections & 32 deaths in two waves (70%)
2005 Cambodia, China, Vietnam & Indonesia have total of 94 cases with 41 deaths (44%)
2006 (up to 6th April 2006) Azerbaijan, Cambodia, China, Egypt, Indonesia, Iraq,  Jordan, Turkey. See Tables for full details

Why H5N1 is not easily transmitted amongst people - The Universities of Wisconsin& Tokyo are examining why it does not easily transmit between humans. Findings published in the 23rd March Nature issue show that the virus usually infects the lower tissues of the lungs. Transmission by coughing & sneezing is significantly reduced. 23/3/2006 China Day More Detail

Swedish researchers find evidence that more people were infected by the pure Avian H5N1 Virus in Vietnam than initially reported. These were in people displaying mild flu-like symptoms. This is a double edged sword but the good news could be that the Virus may not be as lethal as the current fatality figures indicate (50%+ deaths). The unsettling news is that this would also indicate that the Virus jumps very easily from birds to Humans, theoretically increasing the chances of a cross Human infective mutation developing. 10/1/2006

Last 30 Days (in reverse date order)

H5N1 spreads in Asia, and possibly the World, through Smuggling - The smuggling of live poultry from China into Vietnam is rife over their porous borders with estimates of 4500 birds a day sneaking through the borders. Samples of confiscated birds have uncovered several infected with Bird Flu. It has been long suspected that the elicit export of birds and poultry products has been the primary vector responsible for the spread of this disease. This will add to the current argument that Wild Birds are not the main cause of the spread of this disease. Just a brief look at the evidence shows that smuggling by unscrupulous people is extremely active and this is not only Poultry amongst impoverished, uneducated people in remote areas. There have been three confirmed instances of illegally imported Exotic Birds found with this disease. We will be addressing this whole issue very soon as the risks are enormous and in some areas Governments do not seem to be doing very much to limit or control these undercover Exports. 28/4/2006 Survival Initiative Comment. Source Ohmy News

It might not be so easy to find H5N1 amongst Wild Birds - Extensive tests amongst 30 000 healthy European migrating birds found not a single incidence of H5N1. However, tests on 2000 dead migratory birds during the same period found nearly 25% infected with this virus. The natural conclusion is that this disease is as rapidly fatal amongst them as it is with poultry. This then suggests, as has been long claimed by Wild Bird organisations, that they are not primarily responsible for the spread of this disease. Wild birds certainly played a part but probably in small incremental stages before the infection has quickly killed them. They are unlikely to be spreading it far and wide as has been suggested by many government and organisations, who seem hell-bent on exonerating their poultry industries.

It does raise a couple of questions about these birds flying into the Americas right now. Firstly - Could they make the crossing from the Orient and Russia without dying on the way? The second question is - Will those doing the testing of dead (and live) birds in Alaska & Hawaii be overwhelmed, because this is the Bird's own annual Flu season, just like us humans. There is naturally a significant rise of fatalities from the many normal Influenza viruses and, with far more being reported by the public, they may well be swamped. Unfortunately there is no alternative. The tests must be carried out, but it is becoming ever more likely that there H5N1 may not reach America this year. The same would apply to Australia.

There is a growing body of evidence pointing towards Chinese poultry farms being the primary breeding ground for this disease and that their exports of poultry products, both legal & illegal, have been largely responsible for its spread. The Nigeria puzzle now seems to be unraveled. That country definitely received shipments of eggs for hatching, and possible hatchlings, from China preceding their outbreak. There were no reports from any countries between Egypt & Lake Chad which would ordinarily have become infected if migratory birds were responsible for the spread. Neither have there been any reports from the Lake Chad region where extensive testing is being conducted. Just to explain - Lake Chad is the wintering place for millions of Asian & European migratory birds and, if they had been carrying the disease with them, then surely tests would have found it by now.

If the exporting of Chinese poultry products has been the primary vector, then we have a problem. Despite most countries placing embargoes in these goods, there still remains a significant amount of illicit trade. Vietnam impounded poultry from China this month and Italy has just had a second raid, uncovering illegal poultry imports from China. Controlling that, and the trafficking of wild Exotic Birds, will be the challenges of the coming year and, with the possible exception of North America and Australasia, the world will remain extremely vulnerable to H5N1. 20/4/2006 Survival Initiative Comment. Reference Seattle Post Intelligencer

British Bird Monitoring Tests Questioned - Suggestions have been made by Swedish avian researchers that the testing methods, employed by the British Laboratories monitoring Avian Influenza, are flawed. They say that the results speak for themselves. Sweden, the Netherlands and the USA produce results, depending on species, ranging between 1% and 10% detected with common mild Avian Influenza infections, with an average of between 6% & 7%. The British results consistently show less than 1%. This in itself is suspicious but the damning comment was that the British samples were being stored in a manner that could destroy most of the viral evidence before they were tested.

Dr Bjorn Olsen, of the Swedish University of Kalmar which conducts Europe's largest Bird monitoring survey, has stated that the British numbers are wrong and points the finger directly at the method they use for storing samples prior to testing. This brings into question the validity of the thousands of negative results that were declared over this last week, after testing for H5N1 following the Cellardyke swan. 13/4/2006 IC Hownslow

Poultry products from China smuggled into the EEC - A raid on a Chinese restaurant in Milan and an earlier one on a warehouse, have uncovered the illicit importing of major quantities of poultry products from H5N1 infected regions. Police sources have suggested that this is business is so large it may be second only to narcotics. The warehouse raid alone yielded 3 million parcels of chicken meat, illegally imported from China. 13/4/2006 Herald Tribune

Over-reaction from the panicking British - Bird Sanctuaries and other Animal Shelters in the UK have noticed a marked increase in people wanting to re-home their pet birds. They are not alone. The reality is that in situations like this the uninformed public everywhere get it wrong, like the French and Germans dumping cats after that dead one, on the Baltic island of Ruegen, was found H5N1 positive. Understand one thing - Unless you get uncomfortably close to an infected animal, you have no chance of catching this disease. Ask yourselves - How many Europeans have caught H5N1? The answer is none, even in some fairly heavily infected areas. Those in Asia who have caught it have usually been poultry workers handling diseased poultry extensively without any kind of protection, precautions or any real level of hygiene. Hang on to your cats and birds and just be prepared to limit their freedom a little if your region becomes truly infected. Any other choice you make to Pass the Buck to other people or dump the animals is just plain cruelty and also a bit Thick. If guilty, you would not deserve to be classified as 'Human'. 12/4/2006 Survival Initiative Comment. see report Enfield Independent

Dead Swan in Scotland was infected with H5N1 - A dead swan found on Wednesday last week in Cellardyke, Fife, Scotland, has tested positive for the H5N1 virus. 2 dead swans found in Glasgow a further 7 from around Scotland have been given the all clear. Results are still awaiting on a further 6 and the 6 swans found dead in Northern Ireland yesterday. The H5N1 positive bird in Fife had been mutilated by scavengers and Gulls were observed pecking at the body. This does raise fears that the virus could still be in wild.

No poultry farms are affected and control measures have been put in place including ordering Poultry indoors in a substantial area in East Fife, Scotland. It should be stressed that there is no danger to people whatsoever, providing that basic precautions are taken. Do not touch any dead birds or animals and report them to DEFRA on their Hot Line 08459 335577. It is advised that Cat owners in the Infection control zone should keep their pets indoors. Cats can catch the virus fairly easily because they scavenge & hunt but are no risk to humans unless you cuddle and kiss a sick pet (Let's be realistic - You should not do that at any time but it is important currently). 6/4/2006 ITV News and Survival Initiative Comment (Updated 7/4/2006).

Cats may fuel H5N1 mutation - Studies have indicated that cats could accelerate H5N1 mutations by placing evolutionary demands on the virus. Not sure we go along with that thinking because of the substantial evidence of other animals and humans being infected without apparent symptoms. This information is underlined by confirmed test results showing H5N1 antibodies in people connected to either infected birds or the Thai Big Cats that were struck down by the disease. These people were found in 4 different countries and none had reported illness. Our standpoint is that the virus would be under evolutionary pressure in any other infected species, not only cats. 5/4/2006 Times on Line

Media Hype - We noted on Thursday that several BBC radio broadcasts that they were saying "14 more birds and 2 other species found in Scotland are being tested for H5N1. This is blatant Hype. The spin doctors have picked up on a natural development in this kind of situation, made a News story of it and help to fuel unnecessary panic. At times like this, public spirited citizens will naturally report any dead animal (and there must be hundreds in a week). A few over enthusiastic or concerned people will also report anything from dead Parrots to Road Kill. The Veterinarian Services are obliged to investigate each and take any tests required if there are compelling indications. They will have decided to check 14 dead birds and two other dead animals, out of the many reported incidents, as an intelligent monitoring exercise, just as they have been doing on hundreds of others since the virus appeared in Europe. The real News is that they are constantly monitoring and sample testing in the Nature reserves and elsewhere to try and keep one step ahead. 14 dead birds & 2 'Other' species being tested is not news. The two swans in Glasgow and the 6 in Ireland were worth watching because both represented above-average events. Addendum - The labs at the time they received the Swan samples had a backlog of over 1000 bird samples to test, including other dead birds and monitoring samples from the many bird reserves in east Scotland. 9 of these 14 Hyped cases have been found free of the disease today and we wait for results on the remaining 6 (& 2 'Others') but we are not unduly concerned. BBC

Intensive Poultry Farming responsible for H5N1 infection spread - The GRAIN Organisation stated categorically that the H5N1 Avian Flu virus is a direct product of intensive poultry farming. Wild Birds are not a major transmission vector as is currently believed. The majority of major outbreaks can be traced to road & rail networks and the distribution of poultry products, particularly feeds. This is a view endorsed in an email from the Union of Concerned Scientists. A major component of poultry and fish feeds in east asian intensive farming is what is commonly termed litter. This includes faeces, in which the virus can survive for up to 35 days.

All the media hype around the major Wild Bird H5N1 outbreak at Qinghai Lake, ignored the fact that there are many poultry factory farms in the area and the lake is home to some intensive Fish Farming enterprises and they feeds made from poultry floor sweepings. Add that to the compelling evidence that there is no migration of Wild Birds from Qinghai Lake into Eastern Europe whatsoever. There is a lot of other compelling evidence to support this standpoint. Laos, for example, is right in there amongst the infected countries and on the migration routes, but it has few industrial poultry farms. It has had a few sporadic small outbreaks but, despite the fact that it has a massive number of Backyard free-range poultry enterprises, these have remained almost free of the disease. If Wild birds were the vector, then they surely would have been hit hard, as they would have done if there was intensive industries using bulk feeds.

The sad thing is that the WHO, most governments and even the UN seem to be ignoring this line of enquiry, focusing instead on other research that just conveniently supports big commerce and industry. Do we smell "Vested Interests" here? 29/3/2006 Full Article GRAIN report Feb. 2006

Sweden finds Mink infected with H5N1- The Swedish National Veterinary Institute announced that a Mink was found infected with this Avian flu strain. The animal was found in the same southern region of Blekinge that dead birds recently tested positive for H5N1. It probably became infected after eating an infected bird carcass.

This is the 11th non Avian species, excluding humans, that has been found infected with this disease. There is no evidence that any of them have been anything other than victims, almost certainly catching H5N1 by eating infected carcasses. There was an unfortunate incident in Germany, where some domestic cats were being abandoned after the discovery of an infected cat on Ruegen island. This was a major over-reaction, bordering on panic because we cannot catch H5N1 from any species including birds, unless you eat infected animals, handle them very extensively or if you are in the habit of kissing sick animals. The best you can do for your pet cat or dog, if you are in an infection zone, is to keep them indoors or walk on a lead. Cats will instinctively hunt birds and scavenge so they are at high risk of catching the disease. You people out there are not at risk as long as you follow simple basic precautions. 27/3/2006 Survival Initiative Comment and report Deepika Global

Unseasonal cold weather in Siberia has fuelled the spread of H5N1 Avian Influenza West of the primary infected zones. This was despite recent assurances from several Wild Birding organisations that Wild Birds would not be culprits as they typically migrate in a Southerly & Northerly direction. However, in this instance the primary carriers were ducks and swans. Understandably, these organisations do not want wildlife targeted unfairly in efforts to stop the spread of this disease but a sensible approach would be to work with authorities and develop public education programs to manage the effects of this strain of Bird Flu. It is just as fatal to Wild Birds as it is to domestic poultry so sensible policies are to everyone's benefit. 10/3/2006 Survival Initiative Comment

Erasmus Medical Centre have discovered that H5N1 easily infects cats with lethal consequences. Cats have been infected by respiratory, digestive, and cat-to-cat contact. The paper by Rimmelzwaan et al., "Influenza A virus (H5N1) infection in cats causes systemic disease with potential novel routes of virus spread within and between hosts," appears in the January issue of The American Journal of Pathology. 4/2/2006

Last 30 Days (in reverse date order)

10 Minute Bird Flu Testing kits soon available - Rockeby Biomed, a Singapore based biotech company are working with manufacturer, Pacific Biotech to get International licensing for two H5N1 testing kits. One type is a 10 minute test on bird faeces or blood, while the other is designed for use on people suspected of being infected. The WHO has already listed these kits on their website identifying. The Age 11/4/2006

Glaxo starts tests on two new H5N1 vaccines - One vaccine is based on a more traditional model for Influenza Vaccines but the second one has special additives (adjuvants) which they hope will stretch the vaccine allowing for smaller doses, and possibly broaden the effectiveness to cover similar but mutated models of H5N1. If the trials are successful they may encourage governments to start introducing the vaccine to Kick Start immune systems in preparation for a human form of H5N1 Influenza.

The strategy is two-fold. The first is to make a vaccine that goes further, therefore helping to overcome the problem of getting enough produced in a short space of time once a pandemic starts. The second objective is to develop a broad spectrum vaccine that will protect against a range of closely related mutations of H5N1. As the virus mutates further from the original model that the vaccine was developed from, the medication will start to lose its effectiveness but it is hoped that once the immune system is triggered for this group of viruses, not only may the effects of the human infective form be lessened but the body may be more responsive to smaller doses of a modified vaccine based on later mutations. 2/4/2006 In dependant on Line and others

First Trials of an experimental H5N1 vaccine are disappointing - 180mg needed to achieve 52 - 56% immunity, compared with the Standard Seasonal Flu jab which provides between 75% and 90% with an average of 30mg. This first test of the trial vaccine, manufactured by Sanofi Pasteur, demonstrated the apparent difficulty immune systems have in developing antibodies quickly enough and in sufficient quantities to fight this disease. The experimental vaccine was part of an ongoing development phase preparing for the possible need to mass produce vaccines in the event of a pandemic. It really is just paving the way for full scale manufacture, because an final effective vaccine cannot be produced until a Human Infective mutation of H5N1 appears.

Calculations, based on this trial vaccine production and effectiveness, indicate that only enough vaccine could be produced in the first year to protect about 75 Million people. In other words, unless they can find a more effective way, only 1% of the world's population will achieve immunity through vaccination during Year One of the pandemic.

On a more positive note, trials on the standard Seasonal Influenza vaccine have shown that smaller injections (1/5th) under the skin produce the same 80% +/- immunity response as the usual muscular injections. This trial was initiated because of the severe supply shortage due to excessive demand over fears of Bird Flu. There is every indication that an H5N1 vaccine could achieve similar improvements in effectiveness by adopting the same approach. The down-side is that injections just under the skin are a lot more difficult to do than the usual jabs.

Other positive developments are that there are many other vaccine trials going on. Different ideas, different approaches and different ways of manufacture. A key element is the attempt to move away from current methods that use chicken eggs to develop vaccines. With a pandemic, there just will not be enough disease free eggs available to produce the kinds of quantities that are needed. We await results from some of these other trials. 30/3/2006 Survival Strategy Editorial. Based on Globe & Mail and Others

Critical Archive

The US will not have sufficient Medicine Stocks within 3 years - The Proceedings and Conclusions from the November 2005 Pandefense 1.0 conference by heath experts on the H5N1 pandemic scenario have recently been released by Carnagie-Mellon University. In summary they include an estimate of deaths in the event of a pandemic, at 6 million deaths in the US and 180 million worldwide. The probability of H5N1 mutating into a fully human infective form was given as 15% and the opinion that Antiviral & Vaccine development & production would not achieve adequate stockpiles in the USA within 3 years.

It was also stressed that, in addition to the major health concerns, there would inevitably be a major destabilisation of social, economic and political structures. Although there prediction of fatalities is only 2% of the US population, the ramifications of disruption to basic infrastructure, including transport and business, would impact on everyone. This would be particularly significant it the disease hits the healthy younger adults hard, as current fatality patterns indicate.

We agree totally with a statement made in Red State that - Prior planning and the development of Self Reliance amongst ordinary people are very important for minimising the effects of a crisis of this scale. 26/3/2006 Survival Initiative Comment and Red State

Why H5N1 is not easily transmitted amongst people - The Universities of Wisconsin& Tokyo are examining why this virus does not easily transmit between people and why it is such a serious infection in humans. Findings published in the 23rd March Nature issue show that the virus usually infects the lower tissues of the lungs. Human Influenza usually infects the upper respiratory tract, which is more easily accessible by the virus and also increases the spread through coughing and sneezing. The deep lung pattern of infection makes treatment more difficult. 23/3/2006 China Day

Amantadine – China uses this Antiviral in vast quantities to limit the spread of H5N1 amongst its chickens. It is now reckoned to be of limited value for treatment as the virus is becoming resistant to this Medicine. 18/6/2005

Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) – H5N1 Virus is showing signs of resistance to this Antiviral that being stockpiled by Governments around the world. Evidence of this resistance is emerging in Vietnam. 27/12/2005 This was subsequently confirmed when 30-Scientists in Hong Kong reported that the H5N1 avian flu virus strain was showing resistance to this antiviral. 28/1/2006

United Kingdom orders a provisional quantity of the pure Avian H5N1 Vaccine and, like its limited orders for Tamiflu, ring-fenced for essential personnel. At £4 per shot, we maintain that this should be ordered for every person. The cost of treating a single person ill with H5N1 would cost hundreds more in direct medical costs and incalculably more in terms of economic damage. General public access to Avian Flu medication is virtually nil, unless you happen to be wealthy, have valuable contacts or powerful friends. We do not have a problem with the prioritising of access to medication to ensure essential services are maintained, but surely we should be pressurizing our governments to obtain supplies for all its citizens. After all, it is our taxes that provide the money and our votes that gave them the authority to manage our country for us. Comment 1/2/2006

Roche give estimates on Tamiflu Supply - Roche has said it will be able to make enough of it to treat 150 million people this year and 300 million in 2007.

USA Customs intercept a shipment of counterfeit Antivirals. These were fake Tamiflu coming in from China. This is the first instance of Influenza Drug counterfeiting but it will escalate as these Vultures take advantage of peoples panic. Our Primary warning is that, even if you are desperate, only obtain these drugs only from 100% approved sources. Internet drugs are invariably fakes and, as such, are dangerous.

Live vaccine developed that appears to give 100% protection against the current strain of H5N1 Avian Flu. Tested in mice and chickens, this vaccine when given intravenously seems to provide complete protection, while those treated with Nasal inhalation had 50% protection. Still needs to be tested on humans and given the full shake down before full approval is given. Indications seem to suggest that this vaccine could provide significant protection against early Human Infective mutations. An added plus is that the production of this type of vaccine would only take one month as opposed to the tradition three months for Dead virus vaccines. 29/1/2006

Last 30 Days (in reverse date order)

Growing body of Academics believe it unlikely that H5N1 will mutate into a Human Infective form - This virus has been studied for 10 years now, after it was first isolated in Chinese geese. In that time it has had ample opportunity to mutate into something more contagious but, besides acquiring the ability to infect humans with great difficulty, it has not shown any signs of developing that 'Sneeze' capability that could turn it into our greatest fears. Sure it has changed in several ways but these mutations have had no bearing on the Human Infective factor and, since 1997 when it first infected humans, it has had plenty of chances to mix with other human Influenza viruses and become another 1918 Influenza Pandemic.

Many Scientists are suggesting that there may be some fundamental, but unknown, reason why it cannot make this transition. Whilst accepting that an Influenza Pandemic is very likely to occur sometime in the future, they are starting to doubt whether H5N1 will be the one. This viewpoint is starting to gain more credibility since it was revealed that H5N1 first appeared in Aberdeen Scotland way back in 1959. That would mean the virus had nearly 50 years to make that vital transmission. It certainly has mutated a lot since then to become a deadly infection, but still that human contagious factor is missing.

On a note of caution, however, it has been pointed out that H3N8 had infected American Horses for 40 years before mutating into a Canine Influenza Virus last year. Their message is that 'Anything is possible'. I would not put any bets either way but let us not forget that, irrespective of whether it becomes the next Human Pandemic or not, it is a particularly devastating Poultry Virus. It may also have severe implications for Wild Birds. Whatever happens, there will be serious repercussions right around the world and may force us reevaluate Factory Farming methods and Global Trade controls. 17/4/2006 Survival Initiative Comment. Source - Calgary Sun

Leading British Scientist claims little chance of virus mutating into a Human Infective form - Professor Sir David King, the British Governments chief scientific advisor has stated that the risk is low, based on the evidence of infections since 1996. Over this period a great many people have been exposed to the virus in conditions considered potentially ideal for mutation into a dangerous human form, without any evidence of the required changes occurring. We also should point out that the original less virulent H5N1 virus was first identified in Scottish chickens in the mid 1950's and, while it has undergone many changes in those 50 years to become lethal to birds, it has not mutated in a human infective direction.

As a footnote, the Government in the UK has stated today that none of the thousands of bird samples tested have the H5N1 virus. Good news because late Sunday, the media were suggesting that a major Bird Reserve & migration transit point, north of Cellardyke, was likely to be the original home of the dead swan. Seems like a little more Media Hype and a little guesswork. Our feeling is that this bird likely came from the German Island of Ruegen, as the H5N1 strain indicates, and was washed in from the North Sea were it had died. The Labs are continuing to do monitoring tests and examining reported dead birds throughout the UK. 10/4/2006 Independent On Line and Survival Initiative Comment.

Critical Archive

H5N1 splits into two distinct strains - US Scientists report today that the H5N1 strain of bird flu in humans has evolved into two separate strains. This will make the development of a vaccine and more difficult, One strain was responsible for human infections in Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand during 2003 and 2004, whilst the second caused the infections in Indonesians in 2004. 19/3/2006 Reuters

Specific Mutation requirements for human infection Identified - Scientists at Scripps Research Institute, California, have identified the specific mutations needed for H5N1 to become capable of passing between people. Currently humans normally become infected only when handling diseased birds. Two molecules on the surface of the virus are deemed critical for the virus to develop into a human infectious respiratory disease. Currently the virus passes freely between birds, usually via faeces, into the intestinal tract. These new findings mean dangerous mutations can be detected faster. 16/3/2006 - Source - HealthDay News

Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) – H5N1 Virus is showing signs of resistance to this Antiviral that being stockpiled by Governments around the world. Evidence of this resistance is emerging in Vietnam. 27/12/2005 This was subsequently confirmed when 30-Scientists in Hong Kong reported that the H5N1 avian flu virus strain was showing resistance to this antiviral. 28/1/2006

Amantadine – China uses this Antiviral in vast quantities to limit the spread of H5N1 amongst its chickens. It is now reckoned to be of limited value for treatment as the virus has mutated to become resistant to this drug. 18/6/2005

A new test may help provide a kind of early warning system for new and dangerous mutations in the avian flu virus, US researchers say. The test, called a glycan array, shows it would take very little change for the H5N1 avian influenza virus to cause a human pandemic, said Ian Wilson of the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California. 11/1/06

Red Cross plan massive campaign of public awareness - According to the the World Health Organisation only around 50 countries have any real plans in place in the event of a Human Infective form of H5N1 emerging. Understandably the underdeveloped nations are particularly vulnerable. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies are preparing to train of 50 000 volunteers to address this situation and the 183 societies worldwide may well become the Front Line of defence in facing a pandemic, particularly in Africa and Asia where they are already very active. They have appealed for funds and estimate that $13.7 Million is required to complete this training and the preparations. 21/4/2006 News 24

Expert says avian flu pandemic very unlikely in the USA - The National Institutes of Health's infectious disease chief, Dr. Anthony Fauci, has stated that a a widescale pandemic in Poultry or People is very unlikely. The very high level of surveillance means that we will detect early and react quickly in the event of it entering the country. Unlike the Asian situation, Europe has shown that western nations are better able to implement effective control measures to limit the spread of H5N1. The situation in underdeveloped countries has seen Poverty, the absence of compensation and a higher level of contact between people and infected birds exacerbate the problem. The US Poultry industry go to great lengths to separate their birds from wildfowl and will cooperate fully applying effective control measures if the disease gets in.

The other major factor is that as time progresses the threat of this virus mutating into a human form diminishes. It has had plenty of opportunity to do this during its very widespread Asian epidemic and it is showing no signs of making any of the series of genetic changes required for it to become easily infected by people. Past Influenzas have also indicated that generally the more contagious the disease, the less lethal it becomes.12/4/2006 MLive

Cellardyke back to the way it should be - We visited Cellardyke today, almost by accident, while walking. A long planned trip to Anstruther, a favorite spot of ours, resulted in us tripping over the little quay called Cellardyke and we saw the effects of this being the H5N1 infection capital of Scotland. What did we see? Nothing! The Media had long since departed after giving this quiet backwater its 15 minutes of fame and even the Police had left. Had they ever really been there in force at all? We had been informed in today's newspapers that the 'so called' 3Km Protection Zone would be removed by around the 20th April, providing that no other signs of the disease are found, while the other larger Control Zone would be relaxed over time. We saw Nothing - Not a roadside warning, not a cop and no monitoring activities whatsoever on the several surrounding roads. The Police Van at the Quay was unattended and had all the appearances of being a 'Media Plant', you know - Something to be visible on the TV shots.

This got us thinking. The Sunday Papers were talking about managed control zones and monitoring. Maybe the authorities had already decided that this was probably an isolated incident and wound down the exercise, while still keeping the Media Hype alive. Have we now got a Government interested only in 'Being seen to do the right thing', in a scenario where even the Upholders of the Law put their 'Image' before anything else, or has this whole H5N1 thing been blown out of proportion?

The whole world, the Internet and even ourselves have been quite happy to paint a country as 'Infected' without looking carefully at the facts. A single Infected dead bird does not mean Nationwide infection. Have a look at all the countries that have only had a single recorded case of this disease, without any further evidence. Increasingly it looks like the disease is not quite as infectious amongst Wild Birds as was first claimed. Had it been so, then many other countries in Europe alone would have been riddled with the disease.

More and more, the hotbeds of infection are being revealed as High Intensity Poultry Farming establishments and their distribution of poultry products. Nobody is denying the the Wildfowl play a part at some level but the weight of evidence is rapidly shifting to the poultry industry as being the main contagion vehicle. Our feelings are that the government here in the UK realised very early on that this isolated dead swan was unlikely to be a problem and have downscaled most activities accordingly, whilst still keeping the Lab testing in fairly high gear. Its either that reason or that they are more interested in saving money. The second of these possibilities continues to worry us because the UK government has frequently demonstrated its nature to prioritise Money Saving over Public Safety issues.

We will be reassessing our data and repositioning over the next few days. In the meantime this British 'Storm in a Teacup' is still boiling but apparently only in the eyes of the Press and the Government's spin doctors. And in Cellardyke? Life has quickly returned to normal after a hectic few days and the residents are once again enjoying the tranquility on this lazy sunny Sunday afternoon. 9/4/2006 Survival Initiative Report (Amended 10/4/2006)

Wake up Call & a Reality Check - 25 miles away from us a dead swan became the first British casualty of the H5N1 strain of Avian Influenza. The Media had a field day yesterday and today in fuelling a mini panic amongst the unaware public. The Public's ignorance and utter belief in the media mean 't that sales of chicken products drop by around 50% in one day! This is not speculation or second hand information. I personally spent around 6 hours today in major grocery retail outlets and found the freezers overflowing with all poultry products and many beef & lamb goods virtually sold out. Even the very popular 'Spicy Chicken Pizza' was still stacked high after the 3pm single's rush.

The DEFRA Hotline, as expected, has been overwhelmed by 'Dead & Sick Animal' reports, many of them ridiculous. And I have lost count of the number of times I have been asked - "How long have we got before Bird Flu gets us?"

In retrospect we knew a lot of these reactions would occur but it needs to witnessed first hand before you really really believe it. Bouncing a few of those dreaded figures around produced a stereotypical human profile, where less than 10% have any real idea of what is going on, at most another 30% understand that this disease is still only a Bird Disease and the remaining 60% firmly believe that Armageddon has arrived on our shores.

So let's get one thing straight. H5N1 is a pure pandemic Bird Disease, lethal if you happen to be a chicken but so easy to protect against if you are a person. Sure it can infect humans but we have only had around 200 in all this time that the virus has been raging around 20% of the globe. You have to be handling a lot of diseased birds without precautions before you can possibly become infected and just remember that 14 countries in the EEC have had infected birds including poultry, without a single human case. Add to that the fact that there is no evidence whatsoever that any human has been infected by eating poultry. It is all down to extremely intimate close contact with diseased birds & possibly people.

Basic common sense, good hygiene and a few other precautions are all that is needed to stay healthy, and these do not include avoiding poultry meat. Any properly cooked poultry is 100% safe.

#1 - Bird Flu in not a human disease and is not considered infectious to humans. People catch it only by getting excessively close to and handling infected birds.
#2 - Do not touch dead wild birds and report them if the circumstances are correct. i.e. Your Budgie falling off its perch or a pigeon run over by a car do not count.
       You think I am joking? Some reported incidents would make a good comedy show. Use you good judgemental because the vets are going to be swamped with
       cases to investigate without overloading with unnecessary stuff. Key species are Swans, Geese, Ducks, Waders, Buzzards, Gulls & Cats.
#3 - If you are in an infection zone try to keep your cats indoors and don't let dogs run around loose. With regards to any sick pets you may have - Do not kiss and
       cuddle them. Wash your hands frequently and do not put your hands up to your mouth/nose.
#4 - I would give up using Chicken Manure to fertilise your grass or crops this year. Some chicken products get shipped long distances and the virus can survive at
       least 35 days in bird faeces. Legal & illegal exports of chickens and by-products from China have been placed at the centre of many outbreaks in the far east
       and are suspected in the Nigerian outbreak. Should the virus be widely spread in any regions (i.e. not just one isolated case) then you should be cautious
       handling any birds and areas of high density droppings. 7/4/2006 Comment by Survival Initiative. (updated 8/4/2006)

Secret British Government Document reveals 'Worst case Scenario' - This leaked Cabinet Briefing document reveals the fact that British infrastructure would crumble under the effects of a serious pandemic and that any new Vaccine prepared from a Human Infective form of H5N1 would not reach the population in time during the first wave. In this document, the projected death toll from such a Pandemic ranges from a low of around 54 000, past a 'Prudent estimate of 320 000 to a final 'Worst Case' figure of 700 000. That represents a little over 1% of the British population.

Obviously every country should be putting together realistic strategy documents to address issues of medicine distribution, National Health policy, contingency planning for handling bodies in a 'Worst Case' scenario and the potential of civil disturbance. Economic meltdown and the application of military control are also issues that need to be studied but the worrying thing with this British document is that there seems little mention of any strategy for informing the public in any meaningful way, allowing them the opportunity of individual control over their future.

This would seem to prove that Governments hide and/or distort public information to serve hidden purposes, so called "Noble" or otherwise, but by keeping the public in the dark they would be condemning many to death by denying their civil right to critical information necessary for preparation & survival. As already proposed at International level, a critical strategy for managing a serious pandemic includes personal or clustered quarantine situations, not only for those groups having the illness, but for those people that are disease free. Some States in the USA have already been preparing for such events by recommending folk slowly build up stocks of essential provisions for exactly this eventuality. They realise that the Government would be incapable of supporting this strategy without substantial 'Self-Help'. Is the UK, with its typical 'Nanny State' mind set, naively convinced that they could do any better?

Key points in this document include the following
An H5N1 Pandemic could reach most corners of the UK within 2 weeks of arriving on their shores.
Vaccines could take between 4 & 6 months to produce from the virus, once a Human Infective strain was identified.
The disease could sweep through in several waves possibly mutating further during this time, therefore nullifying or reducing the effectiveness of any vaccine.
The Military may be of little use because of their current overseas commitments.
A total of 50% of the population could be expected to catch the disease.
It is likely that local authorities would be overwhelmed with bodies and various strategies are suggested, including temporary Mass Graves, for reburial later.
3/4/2006 The Scotsman and Survival Initiative comment

Critical Archive

A new test may help provide a kind of early warning system for new and dangerous mutations in the avian flu virus, US researchers say. The test, called a glycan array, shows it would take very little change for the H5N1 avian influenza virus to cause a human pandemic, said Ian Wilson of the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California. 11/1/06