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Our figures are different from the WHO (World Health Organisation) because they only publish WHO confirmed tests. They do not include test results from other fairly reputable sources including many National Laboratories, unless they are confirmed by a WHO accredited Lab. We feel that there is already an under-reporting of Human H5N1 Influenza infections because of the lack of testing in many remote areas and the possible hiding of evidence by some Governments. Any country that states that they have a positive result for this disease, in a credible virus exposure situation, is accepted by us, based on the balance of probabilities. We do not however record any untested guesses, except to record suspicious occurrences.

In an effort to get a better picture of the possible wider infection amongst people, we have also included H5N1 Antibody Screening, where we have definitive figures. To explain - If these Antibodies are present in a person, they must have been exposed to the disease and generally to have received some level of infection. There is a limited possibility of Antibodies being produced when exposed to dead viruses but the majority of screening has taken place in recent high infection zones or amongst Health Care & Poultry workers who have been directly exposed. We therefore consider these as valid figures when trying to assess how far this strain of Avian Influenza has spread.

China has had a long history of hiding situations from the world's eyes. Even as recently as the SARS scare they were blatantly falsifying figures and denying infection. In November 2005 a respected Japanese Scientist, who had been working in China with the H5N1 poultry problem, declared that at least 300 people had died from the H5N1 infection, with 7 getting the disease via direct human to human infection. This followed many unofficial reports emanating from China that H5N1 was rampant and a large number of people were sick and dying. China denied H5N1 was responsible for any human infections but, while apparently arresting several people in the affected regions along with many journalists, eventually admitted to a large number of birds at Qinghai Lake dying of Avian Influenza. Of the suspected human fatalities nothing was mentioned, although they then started to admit to a few cases from around this time onwards.

Also around this time the WHO astonished many by downplaying the eminent scientist's report and declaring that they did not believe the Chinese were hiding anything any more. In light of the continuing arrests of journalists and the SARS debacle, we find this statement suspect. A suggestion has been put forward that the organisation was so desperate to get Chinese cooperation with monitoring the Avian Flu epidemic that they were willing to forgive almost anything. This then puts a slight tarnish on the WHO and their reports. The minute an organisation of this stature starts playing a political game, or making strategic decisions 'For the greater Good', it loses a little credibility and its impartiality starts to be questioned. It becomes a little more like the UN, an organisation that is only a Gnats hair away from being a joke.

Of the mysterious Chinese deaths - There is a mountain of circumstantial evidence but essentially there are three pieces of weighty evidence that make the reports of H5N1 being the responsible agent very credible.

The evidence was such that we nearly placed the 300 figure in the Other column above but two reasons prevented this. We did not have a definitive figure - One totally unconfirmed report stated 121 deaths and the learned Japanese scientist was making an educated guess. The other reason is that we had no figures whatsoever on the number of infections, including survivors. This would have made the collective totals, in the above chart, meaningless. Suffice to say that the above figures barely scratch the surface. There have been plenty more infections and deaths than they suggest.

Report dated 16/4/2006 - Copyright © Mike Elliott 16th April 2006